There’s all sorts of interesting tech trends happening right now, including AI, VR/AR, self-driving cars and drones (as well as interesting stuff happening in verticals like healthcare and finance) — and there’s a lot also happening in seemingly more “mature” tech revolutions, such as mobile and cloud. But where are we now, really, with these shifts… and how does that inform how we think about the next couple decades?
And does a framework like Carlota Perez’s — as outlined in Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages and summarized by venture capitalist and longtime internet investor Fred Wilson (of Union Square Ventures) — fully apply when it comes to software? Because, argues Chris Dixon (general partner on a16z crypto), software “has so much more plasticity, ability to adapt, ability to evolve” that unlike hardware, “the core itself will also dramatically change… not just the apps around it”. The total economic value that will be unlocked with the software revolution, observes Wilson, should be orders of magnitude bigger than what we saw with manufacturing for sure.
But just how much internet innovation is actually powering true disruption (i.e., is more than just a sustaining innovation, to use Clayton Christensen’s terminology)? How do new business models change everything? Dixon and Wilson consider all this and more in this hallway-style episode of the a16z Podcast, where we recorded the two having a think-aloud conversation about everything from the history of the internet and startups, the evolution of capital and infrastructure, to the advent of crypto. How do they they both define “decentralized”, what do they think of dApps, and where do NFTs and “crypto goods” come in?? One thing’s for sure: It’s the most interesting time they’ve both ever seen in over 30 years of internet work, life, and play.
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